Markets don't carewhat you think.

Crypto trading is part of how I learned to think: about risk, about being wrong, about acting without certainty. Ignaz and I share that background. It's one of the things we started from.

1. 01Background

   Where itstarted.

   Crypto markets never close and never explain themselves. Spending time in them means getting feedback on your judgement faster than almost anywhere else.

2. 02Analysis

   A view is nota forecast.

   Analysis doesn't tell me what will happen. It tells me what I currently believe, why, and what would have to change for me to be wrong.

3. 03Risk

   Start with whatit can cost.

   Everyone asks what a position can make. The more useful question comes first: what happens if I'm wrong, and can I live with it?

   Risk arithmetic

   Loss

   −50%

   Gain needed to get back+100%

   Plain arithmetic, the same for everyone. Drag to change the loss.

4. 04Psychology

   The hard partsits in the chair.

   The chart is the easy part. Fear, greed and the need to be right don't show up on it, and they're usually what makes the decision.

5. 05Uncertainty

   You decideanyway.

   You never get all the information. Waiting for certainty is also a decision, and usually an expensive one.